On November 21, more than 800 patients had been waiting to be assigned hospital beds for more than a day since they were confirmed positive for COVID-19. This was the longest waiting list since the outbreak hit the nation. The patients waiting for hospital beds were all located in the greater Seoul area, and this day, more than 80% of the ICU beds in the Seoul metropolitan area were occupied. Even the weekly average exceeded the 75% standard for an emergency assessment. Experts argue that if the number of confirmed cases increases in the current situation, it could lead to a collapse in our medical system and warned that emergency measures, such as a partial tightening of distancing measures, were inevitable.

According to the Central Disaster Management Headquarters at the Ministry of Health and Welfare, as of midnight this day, there were 804 patients who had been on a waiting list for a hospital bed for more than a day among the people confirmed positive for COVID-19. This was the highest number since the novel coronavirus first hit the nation, and among them authorities confirmed that 478 had been waiting for over two days. When the waiting list for hospital beds was the longest during the third wave of the virus (Dec. 17, 2020), there had been up to 595 patients who had to wait more than a day to be assigned to a bed. The Central Disaster Management Headquarters explained, “COVID-19 cases are concentrated in the Seoul metropolitan area, and the number of elderly patients surged, significantly increasing the demand for hospital beds (other than living treatment centers and at-home treatment).” The Headquarters further elaborated, “As the number of older patients with underlying diseases and who are bed-ridden increased, the medical examinations have become more difficult and are taking more time.”

According to the latest status of ICU beds in the Seoul metropolitan area, as of 5 p.m. November 20, 127 beds were available, while 81.5% of the beds were occupied. The government planned to implement an emergency plan following an emergency assessment when the average daily occupancy rate of ICU beds for one week surpassed 75%, but the occupancy rate in the greater Seoul area had already reached an average of 78% last week (Nov. 14-20).

The number of patients in critical condition is also worrisome. The number of hospitalized patients in critical or serious condition recorded a daily average of 502 last week (Nov. 15-21). The figure increased by over a hundred in just two weeks since the first week (Nov. 1-7, 375) when the nation entered a phased return to normal. During the same period, the number of deaths also increased to an average of 24 a day. The accumulated fatality rate, which had been in decline since the vaccine rollout, remained at 0.78% for over forty days since October 6, but headed upwards after November 19 when it recorded 0.79%.

The government designated additional hospitals to exclusively tend to patients with infectious diseases following an administrative order to secure more hospital beds in the Seoul metropolitan area, and in cases of emergency, they will use helicopters to transfer patients in the greater Seoul area to hospitals outside the region. However, preparing hospital beds takes time and if authorities send patients from the Seoul metropolitan area to other areas, it could lead to an overall shortage of hospital beds if the current spread of the virus heads nationwide.

The situation could get worse. This day, authorities confirmed 3,120 new cases of COVID-19 from the previous day. They have been confirming more than 3,000 patients for five consecutive days since November 17. Lee Jae-gap, a professor of infectious diseases at Hallym University Kangnam Sacred Heart Hospital said, “There are already two to three patients in each university hospital, who have been diagnosed as covid-positive in the emergency room but who have yet to be transferred (to other hospitals). On site, it is already an emergency with the current 3,000 daily cases. If more than 4,000 cases are confirmed next week, it could lead to a disaster.” He added, “Right now, it would not seem strange at all for the government to enforce a circuit breaker (emergency plan). In fact, we’re already beyond that point.”