Just over two weeks since the nation began a phased return to everyday life in line with the government’s “With COVID” policy, the number of COVID-19 patients in critical condition has soared, quickly filling the ICU beds in the Seoul metropolitan area. Initially, the government claimed that it had secured enough hospital beds to respond to 5,000 new daily cases, but a red light has turned on the nation’s medical system with only 2,000-3,000 new daily cases.

If the situation continues, experts expect a number of patients to die while waiting for hospital beds as when the third wave of the virus swept through the country. They argue that the situation was brought on by the government’s idle response, despite earlier cases overseas where the virus quickly spread after the countries shifted to a “with COVID” policy, and by its failure in determining the speed at which to ease disease control measures. According to the experts, the next two to three weeks will be critical even if citizens begin receiving booster shots since it will take time to build immunity.

According to the Central Disaster Management Headquarters in the Ministry of Health and Welfare on November 17, as of 5 p.m. the previous day, 76.6% of ICU beds and hospital beds for patients with moderate to serious symptoms in the greater Seoul area were occupied. The rate was high enough for authorities to conduct an “emergency assessment” (required when 75% or more of the ICU beds are occupied) according to the weekly risk assessment standard that the government released this day. In Seoul more than 80% of ICU beds were occupied, and in Incheon, there was no hospital bed available for patients with moderate to serious symptoms. The medical system faced a crisis in less than three weeks since the nation implemented measures encouraging a return to normal.

Time has passed since many of the citizens received the vaccine, reducing the effectiveness of the vaccine and leading to the increasing number of breakthrough cases among older adults. Besides, after a return to everyday life, distancing measures were drastically eased for people who had not been vaccinated, leading to a faster increase in the number of critical patients than was expected. In the past week (Nov. 7-13), the number of patients in critical condition recorded a daily average of 447, a 22% increase from the previous week.

Meanwhile, the number of new daily cases authorities confirmed remained nearly the same at 2,153-2,191 cases a day. The government had been confident that it had secured enough hospital beds to respond to up to 5,000 new daily cases, but the number of patients in critical condition soared compared to the total number of new cases, forcing the government to struggle with just half of the maximum number of cases it had set. On November 5 and 12, the government belatedly released an administrative order instructing top-tier general hospitals in the Seoul metropolitan area to prepare additional ICU beds.

Experts pointed out that the latest situation was the result of the government’s overly optimistic outlook. Since the number of patients in critical condition remained low for some time as the vaccination rate climbed, the government did not secure enough ICU beds and did not rush to administer booster shots to older adults.

Choi Jae-wook, a professor of preventive medicine at Korea University Medical School said, “It was a misjudgment by the government that failed to consider the significance of breakthrough cases,” and further explained, “The authorities failed to sufficiently review the increasing number of new cases and critical patients in Western Europe, where the vaccine was rolled out earlier.” Jung Jae-hun, a professor of infectious diseases at Gachon University Gil Hospital said, “There was a problem in the speed (of easing distancing measures) when the government simultaneously eased restrictions on the number of people allowed at private gatherings and on the business hours of public facilities,” and added that the shortage of hospital beds was expected.

Experts explained that when the number of new cases increased in the nation’s return to normal, the number of patients in critical condition would increase at a faster rate, and argued that the government should hurry to provide booster shots and prepare practical measures to secure hospital beds.