On December 8, North Korea released a statement in the name of the spokesperson for the Academy of National Defense Science and said, “A very important test was conducted at the Sohae Satellite Launching Station the previous day,” and further elaborated, “The test results will play an important role in changing the strategic status of North Korea once again.” Based on various circumstances, it is likely for North Korea to have conducted a new high-power engine test necessary for the projectile of intercontinental ballistic missiles or satellites. North Korea, which has pressed the U.S. to bring “new calculations” to the table by the end of this year, has heightened the level of pressure and sent a warning with the test launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile. This is disconcerting for it seems North Korea and the U.S. have gone beyond exchanging verbal bombs and have begun to execute them.

The Sohae Satellite Launching Station refers to the Tongchang-ri launch site, the center of North Korea’s intercontinental ballistic missiles development. North Korea announced that it was dismantling the facilities after the first summit with the U.S. and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un promised to permanently shut it down during the inter-Korean summit in Pyongyang in September 2018. If North Korea launched a long-range projectile from this site after restoring the facilities, it means a serious act of provocation. This also casts a shadow on U.S. President Donald Trump and his efforts to promote the suspension of long-range missile tests as well as the suspension of nuclear tests as the fruits of his talks with North Korea. The situation is the same, even if North Korea argues that what they launched was a satellite. Satellite launch vehicles and intercontinental ballistic missiles share the same core technology. The moment North Korea launches a long-range projectile, it will become a violation of the UN Security Council sanctions, making it likely for the North to face further sanctions from the international community.

December 7, the day that North Korea claims to have conducted the “important test,” was the day President Moon Jae-in spoke over the phone with President Trump and said they shared views on maintaining momentum for talks between North Korea and the U.S. The same day, North Korean Ambassador to the United Nations Kim Song declared, “The denuclearization issue has come off the negotiation table.” President Trump also said, “I don’t think Chairman Kim wants to interfere with that (upcoming U.S. presidential elections).” His words implied that he would not remain still if North Korea interfered with his bid for a second term in office. North Korea and the U.S. both have reached a critical point, where one step further from either side could decisively deteriorate the situation.

The moment North Korea launches a satellite or an intercontinental ballistic missile, talks with the U.S. will collapse. If the negotiations between North Korea and the U.S. end in such utter failure, there will be no talks until the end of the U.S. presidential election next year. U.S. Special Representative for North Korea Stephen Beigun--now deputy secretary of state nominee--will visit South Korea next week. North Korea and the U.S. need to take advantage of his trip and find a breakthrough for talks. The South Korean government must also do its utmost as facilitator, so that the possibility of talks does not disappear.