Even a Preemptive Strike Cannot Destroy All the Scattered Nuclear Facilities

2013.02.15 17:44
Hong Jin-su

On February 12, Minister of Defense Kim Kwan-jin attended a meeting of the National Defense Committee at the National Assembly and said, "Nuclear weapons are absolute weapons, and when a nuclear weapon is fired, the damage is beyond imagination. The best alternative is to destroy them in advance."

Earlier on February 6, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Chung Seung-jo said, "We will engage in a preemptive strike if we detect signs that North Korea will use its nuclear weapons."

Preemptive strikes have been frequently mentioned ever since North Korea successfully launched a long-range rocket last December and conducted a third nuclear test on February 12. This is a change from how the term was treated as taboo because of its sensitive nature.

Marines are on guard at an artillery fort in Yeonpyeong-do, Incheon on February 14. The Marine Corps tightened vigilance in preparation for further provocations after North Korea conducted their third nuclear test. Kang Yun-jung

Marines are on guard at an artillery fort in Yeonpyeong-do, Incheon on February 14. The Marine Corps tightened vigilance in preparation for further provocations after North Korea conducted their third nuclear test. Kang Yun-jung

However, not only is an actual preemptive strike technically impossible, even if it was possible, several conditions would have to be met for it to be carried out. Thus these discussions have been criticized for being empty threats.

By a preemptive strike, they mean that based on the assumption that North Korea will use its nuclear weapons, the ROK-US military will first detect the signs and strike North Korea's firing positions for its nuclear weapons first. A preemptive strike is a Kill Chain, which progresses in the order of detect→track→target→destroy.

Soldiers detect a mark (1 minute), discern the coordinates (1 min.), and determine which weapon to use and whether the attack will be executed (3 mins.). The first three stages are carried out in less than five minutes. The strike completes the destruction of the target within 25 minutes.

Some necessary preparations are also underway. The South Korean military already has ballistic missiles with a range of 180~300km, and plans to utilize ballistic missiles with a range of 800km, making it possible to attack North Korea's rear bases.

On February 14, the defense ministry displayed these capabilities by announcing that they had positioned the Hamdaeji and Jamdaeji cruise missiles for actual battle and by releasing a video demonstrating their force.

However, such a preemptive strike is not easy in reality. First, no matter how advanced the reconnaissance technology, it is difficult to seek out every nuclear facility spread out throughout North Korea. Former U.S. Secretary of Defense William Perry, who recently visited Korea, also mentioned this, and said a preemptive strike was no longer effective.

In addition, if the North attacks using portable launchers, a precision strike will be difficult. If a preemptive strike fails, a full-scale war will be inevitable. Some point out that the officials are only willing to engage in a full-scale war with their words, when they don't even have the capability to do so.

Persuading the international community to accept a preemptive strike is another challenge. Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations recognizes individual and collective rights to self-defense.

However, it is not clear whether each country's right to self-defense is recognized only after an armed attack by the opposition has occurred or whether it is recognized when threats of an armed attack exist.

Professor Yang Mu-jin of the Graduate School of North Korean Studies said, "It [A preemptive strike] is not a solution, but a choice, which will aggravate the situation. It's an option only when there is absolutely no possibility that the war would escalate." He added, "This, in relation to North Korea, implies that we must meet the conditions that China and Russia will not intervene."

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