Yu Shin-mo's Foreign Affairs in Focus

Moon Jae-in's Balanced Foreign Relations

2017.11.15 17:10
Yu Shin-mo, Foreign Affairs Reporter

[Yu Shin-mo's Foreign Affairs in Focus] Moon Jae-in's Balanced Foreign Relations

President Moon Jae-in began to mention "balanced foreign relations," South Korea's most difficult diplomatic task. What lied at the center of the president's recent diplomatic schedule including the sealing of conflicts over the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system with China, U.S. President Donald Trump's visit to South Korea, the summit with China, and the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit, was "balanced foreign relations." Considering that at one time, the government had seemed so devoted to the U.S. triggering criticism that South Korea was "crawling between the legs of the United States," the latest change is clearly significant.

However, the balanced foreign relations mentioned by Cheong Wa Dae and President Moon seems slightly different. Balanced relations do not mean a balance between the U.S. and China, but refers to expanded cooperation with diplomatic partners other than the U.S. and China. On November 7, at a joint press conference after the South Korea-U.S. summit, President Moon said, "We don't mean we will maintain a balance between the U.S. and China." He further elaborated, "We will diversify our relations with ASEAN members, China, Russia, and the European Union (EU) and seek balanced foreign relations."

The government's explanation on the "new southern policy," announced in Vietnam on November 9 is similar. The limits of diplomacy centered on the U.S. and China were revealed in the THAAD incident and the debate over revisions to the South Korea-U.S. free trade agreement (FTA). So the South Korean government plans to seek balance in its foreign relations by expanding its economic diplomacy with ASEAN, following its new northern policy on Russia.

Of course, in the long term, expanding the diplomatic sphere can reduce South Korea's dependence on the U.S. and China. President Moon's campaign pledge also included the strengthening of foreign relations with ASEAN. But the government had never referred to this as balanced foreign relations. What the government is currently describing is not balanced foreign relations, but the diversification of foreign relations. It is meaningful to expand the diplomatic horizon to ASEAN and the EU, but that will not solve the strategic dilemma South Korea faces between the U.S. and China.

The government is surely aware of this. On November 3, when the heated debate over balanced foreign relations first started, President Moon said in an interview with a foreign press, "I hope to seek a balance in foreign relations by cherishing our relations with the U.S. and also strengthening our relations with China." His remarks show that he is clearly aware that balanced diplomacy is South Korea's strategy amid the competition between the U.S. and China. Thus, the government probably used the concept of diversification of foreign relations in its argument for balanced foreign relations to avoid any criticism from the conservatives in South Korea, who turn pale at the concept of balanced diplomacy, and also to avoid any conflicts with the U.S and China.

Right now, the government is approaching China very quickly to restore bilateral relations. The government has released the so-called "three no principles" to resolve the THAAD conflict뾲he government will not deploy additional THAAD missiles, join the U.S. missile defense system, or pursue a military alliance with the U.S. and Japan.

The president also made clear that South Korea could not immediately joint the Indo-Pacific initiative led by the U.S. and Japan. The government's public announcement of such principles may end up holding them back one day. Besides, the Indo-Pacific initiative is an idea that has yet to be established. It includes elements that are both necessary and burdensome to South Korea, so it is not an issue on which the government should simply draw the line. Despite such factors, the government is willing to take on the risk, showing that it is in a hurry to restore relations with China.

Although South Korea has a new government in office, the reality that the nation faces when it comes to foreign relations, the dilemma it faces caught in the battle for power between the U.S. and China has not changed. China has presented its goal to build a socialist country more powerful than the U.S. in terms of the economy and military by 2050 with the launch of President Xi Jinping's second term in office, leading to expectations of a fiercer clash between the two powers.

Balanced foreign relations is not avoiding and pushing aside sensitive issues. The government should decide how to respond in terms of national interest on issues where the U.S. and China do not see eye to eye and clearly state South Korea's position in a sophisticated manner. This requires a high degree of judgment, a clear purpose, restrained diplomatic capabilities, and firm determination.

The Moon Jae-in government witnessed its long prepared foreign and security strategy suddenly collapse due to North Korea's repeated provocations and a hardline stance by the U.S. shortly after it took office. It was a tough time, when President Moon repeatedly made self-mocking statements such as, "There is nothing we can do on our own." The government, which seemed to inherit the response pattern of past governments뾩etting the U.S. drag them around in despair뾣inally reset its diplomatic coordinates and began voicing its views. This is an extremely positive change.

However, the government still lacks eloquence, and a long-term strategy is not in sight. The China-friendly measures that the government recently released are more of a short-term prescription rushed to comfort China, as the government finds itself with little time to prepare for President Moon's trip to China in December and the successful hosting of the PyeongChang Winter Olympic Games. This reminds us of the government rushing to hold the summit with the U.S. last June and rapidly leaning toward the U.S. in its diplomatic stance. I hope that the government's foreign policy will not end up as a "pendulum," leaning toward the U.S. when facing the U.S. and being considerate of China when facing China.

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