Eyes are on former lawmaker Yoo Seong-min, a key contender representing the non-Yoon members of the People Power Party (PPP), to see if he will run for party leader. Yoo’s bid will be a major factor that could determine the future direction of the People Power Party leadership.

Officially, Yoo is still “contemplating” his bid. Word has it that he is keeping an eye on public opinion as he deliberates his bid. The PPP amended the party constitution and regulations so that the party leader would be determined entirely by party member votes to practically block Yoo’s victory in the party convention, so Yoo’s aides have recently suggested he take a different approach instead of the party convention.

Yoo appeared on the YTN radio show, News King Park Ji-hoon on January 2 and said, “Right now, my biggest question is whether it is really meaningful to run for party leader.” He then said, “I have an overwhelming lead among the general public, but I am not number one among People Power Party supporters. There is a big difference between the thoughts of the party and the people.” The former lawmaker said, “Regardless of whether I, the individual, become party leader or not, I’m very worried about how the people will see a conservative party called the People Power Party celebrate something similar to a private election with only party members--about whether this will help us win in the parliamentary elections,” and stated that people did not engage in politics with just the party convention in sight.

Various media outlets conducted surveys at the end of last year and at the beginning of the new year. They showed that Yoo was the most popular candidate for the next PPP leader, with a large lead ahead of the other candidates, among the general public. But among ruling party supporters, he trailed behind former lawmaker Na Kyung-won, and lawmakers Ahn Cheol-soo and Kim Gi-hyeon. The Kyunghyang Shinmun also requested the polling firm Metrix to conduct a survey, and in the nationwide survey of a thousand people ages eighteen and older conducted on December 30-31, Yoo was the most popular with support from 29.3% of the total respondents, but he ranked fourth among PPP supporters (10.6%). At this rate, Yoo won’t make it to the runoff between the top two candidates, if no one candidate obtains the majority of votes in the first election. If Yoo loses in the race for party leader, following his defeats in the party primaries for the Gyeonggi gubernatorial candidate and presidential candidate, he could have a hard time making a comeback in the People Power Party.

The situation has some people predicting that Yoo will not run for party leader. They claim that Yoo should prepare his next steps instead of making a bid in a race he is not likely to win. Yoo’s close acquaintances believe that when they approach the parliamentary elections scheduled for next April, the People Power Party will have no choice but to seek Yoo’s help, since he is popular in the Seoul metropolitan area and among the moderate voters. Kim Keun-sik, former director of the PPP vision and strategy office appeared on Kim Hyun-jung’s News Show on CBS radio and said, “Based on the opinions of party members, realistically, it will not be easy for Yoo to enter the runoff or ultimately win,” and speculated that Yoo could announce not to run in the race after long consideration.

Yoo is said to have asked people about his bid after hearing the recent survey results. Not long ago, a PPP lawmaker told Yoo over the phone that it would be better for him not to run in the upcoming election. The lawmaker argued, “Even if Yoo is elected party leader, Yoon’s key aides will continue to try and shake the party,” and said, “If that happens, the party will face a bigger crisis with the parliamentary elections approaching.” After imposing disciplinary measures against former PPP leader Lee Jun-seok, the party amended its constitution so that it would be run by an emergency response committee when four of the five members of the Supreme Council resigned. In other words, if the members of the Supreme Council representing the majority in the party engage in collective action, they can oust a party leader representing the minority faction.

The fact that Yoo is concentrating on media appearances unlike other candidates, who are building their base by meeting party members, is another reason people believe Yoo will not run. Party leader candidates such as former lawmaker Na Kyung-won and lawmakers Ahn Cheol-soo, Kweon Seong-dong, and Yoon Sang-hyun attended the New Year’s greeting in Daegu and Gyeongsangbuk-do held at the PPP Gyeongsangbuk-do office in Daegu on Monday, but the radio appearance was Yoo’s only public schedule this day.

Attention is also on what impact Yoo’s decision will have on the party leader election, if he chooses not to run. Currently, polls show that former lawmaker Na and lawmaker Ahn are the top two candidates among party members, but lawmaker Kim Gi-hyeon is quickly rising in the polls by promoting himself as a candidate who has won Yoon’s support. If the party convention ends up a race between a non-Yoon candidate and a pro-Yoon candidate, Yoo Seong-min’s supporters could cast their votes on the non-Yoon candidate. Ahn Cheol-soo recently promoted his appeal in the greater Seoul area and among moderate voters as his strength along with Yoo and is emphasizing that party members make a strategic choice to ensure victory in the parliamentary elections.

The Kyunghyang Shinmun survey mentioned earlier was conducted through computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CATI) using “safe (random) numbers” from the three mobile service providers. The survey had a confidence level of 95% with a ±3.1% margin of error, and the response rate was 10.3%. For more details, please refer to the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission website (www.nesdc.go.kr).